America's Quagmire Obsession
Once again, the U.S. appears ready to plunge into another Middle Eastern quagmire—first as tragedy, now as farce.
The Republican Party of the current moment looks far more like George W. Bush than it does Donald Trump. Ironically, despite years of Trump repeatedly claiming to be anti-war and pro-peace, his administration has yet to offer substantive moves towards peace. Instead, the Trump administration is currently discussing plans that are poised to undoubtedly bring America into Israel’s war against Iran. Bunker busters are now even being floated as a potential opening salvo, which could indicate both our seriousness and our willingness to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. But this involvement will likely be an unmitigated disaster for a variety of legal, political, and humanitarian reasons.
To start, American involvement against Iran would violate international law. This is not a war of defense, nor is it one that has provided concrete evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons. Rather, American involvement will almost certainly only further cement our country’s clear lack of adherence to Article 51 of the UN Charter and the international laws of war. Again, precedents will be shattered for an illegal war that offers no logical security outcomes for our country. Moreover, our activities in Iran, along with Israel’s, will likely lead to the deaths of hundreds if not thousands of innocent civilians. And if the war’s goal were to escalate further toward full regime change, these kinds of numbers would only skyrocket.
Our involvement, while buttressing Israel’s operations, will also carry with it severe responsibilities. By joining the conflict, we are poised to join the operation as the sole superpower resident, carrying with us a kind of political legitimacy and backing that would be responsible for any failures or subsequent crises that emerge. Instead of restraining Israel, our involvement would simply provide them with more impunity. And if the war ends up generating grave humanitarian violations, that blood would unquestionably be on our hands. As will its political and moral consequences. It would likely just be another bloody and long-term war of aggression with no logical endgame in sight.
Additionally, this bloody war currently has no off-ramps or endpoints. There is no guarantee that our or Israel’s action will end Iran’s nuclear program, and while significant delays can be enacted through bombing, what will ultimately stop Iran from moving full-steam ahead over the next decade to seek revenge? Rather than destroying Iran’s nuclear objectives, we would quite paradoxically only provide further justification for why they need the bomb. We would reinforce rather than weaken their resolve. And one can also only imagine the kind of political and security consequences that could emerge, both within Iran and the broader region.
How will Iranian citizens react after being bombed and having to endure severe hardship? Will they greet us as liberators, or more likely, will they instead begin to call for a politics of revenge? Radical, anti-American hardliners within the country are also set to be vindicated, having been right all along about America's lack of desire to seriously negotiate or respect Iranian sovereignty. If there is no regime change, the Iran that would emerge from this war would be far more willing to take risks and engage in horrendous attacks to achieve its goals. It would be far more radical and far more willing to take lives. This would not be an improvement.
Regional governments, and especially their populations, will also emerge from the conflict with a new form of security logic. Power and military might can seemingly only be dissuaded through nuclear deterrence and proliferation. International law, humanitarian protections, and regional condemnation clearly will not impede Israel’s quest for regional hegemony. And thus, the only logical conclusion from these “preventative strikes” will be for countries to recognize Israel’s growing impunity and attempt to hedge against it. Normalization talks will be dead for good, as will any attempts to distance America from Israel’s ongoing activities in the region, including in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. America and Israel are set to actively isolate themselves further from any kind of diplomatic or political channels. All future bets are off the table, and nuclear proliferation will likely become a new norm for state survival.
There is also no stated plan in place for either an escalated war or a post-regime government. If Iran’s elite begins to feel existentially threatened, this will likely only further their desperation and anger. Much more violent and decentralized means of inflicting casualties could be launched. Chemical weapons could also be used, or even a potential nuclear dirty bomb if one were to be created in a last-ditch effort to delay collapse. And even if the regime can collapse without inflicting severe attacks, America will once again, much like in Iraq, face an immediate power vacuum, which is poised to subject the people of the region to intense violence and conflict. Regional neighbors will try to capitalize on the regime’s collapse by funding proxies and groups that will further their interests. Trying to govern the country will be a nightmare, one in which the US and Israel will be largely responsible for implementing and securing. There is also no guarantee that the new Iranian government would ultimately be supportive of an American or Israeli occupation. Armed resistance could follow, and American servicemembers would again be tasked with enacting a state-building project that is doomed to fail.
Finally, American involvement in the war violates US domestic law. Already, several members of Congress have publicly stated their intention to invoke a war powers resolution to stop Trump’s entry into the conflict. While this measure will likely fail, it does not change the legal fact that Congress has not authorized military action against Iran. Like a comical repeat of Iraq, America is quickly finding itself goose-stepping into another Middle Eastern quagmire. One that clearly indicates a lack of lessons learned from the past 25 years.
By and large, America is very likely going to engage with Israel’s war against Iran. American servicemembers will be involved, as will members of our intelligence community. Thousands of lives will be at stake, and all while our country attempts to expedite and strengthen Israel’s illegal war without a set end. Any war crimes or humanitarian crises caused by Israel or ourselves will be front and center for an international audience. Regional countries will likely respond vigorously and negatively. If it fails, it is poised to be a serious quagmire with no long-term plan or vision. We’ve seen this show before, and America should play no part in it. Let us hope that logic prevails and that Trump doesn’t again repeat the mistakes of the countless neoconservatives who came before him. Let’s finally learn a lesson from Iraq, because if we do not, thousands of lives will be on the line for no good reason.